Kazakhstan's external debt has been on the rise, reaching $182.8 billion as of April 1, with a 7.5% year-on-year increase. This growth is primarily attributed to a 39% surge in government and state-controlled institutions' liabilities, while private-sector debt remained stable and intercompany debt linked to foreign direct investment decreased by 5.5%. The National Bank defines external debt as the debt obligations of Kazakhstan's residents to nonresidents, encompassing both public and private-sector liabilities and debt denominated in any currency. The data reveals that most of Kazakhstan's external liabilities are not reflected on the government balance sheet, with sovereign and state-controlled borrowers contributing significantly to the increase since early 2025. Interestingly, the country's external debt is predominantly long-term, with 87.1% having an original maturity of over a year, which the National Bank suggests limits immediate liquidity pressure but doesn't eliminate longer-term risks associated with refinancing and servicing costs. Nonresidents' loans and borrowings constitute 69.2% of the total, while debt securities held by foreign investors account for 13%.
When examining the creditor jurisdictions, the Netherlands stands out as the largest contributor to Kazakhstan's external debt, with approximately $40.8 billion, followed by the United Kingdom, Russia, China, and the United States. However, it's important to note that these figures may not directly represent government lending and include corporate and intercompany liabilities, which can be held or administered through various jurisdictions. For instance, the Netherlands' $41 billion total includes only $21 million in government debt, $11 million in bank debt, and $38.23 billion in intercompany debt, indicating that a significant portion of Kazakhstan's debt recorded against the Netherlands is intercompany FDI debt.
The trend of rising external debt is not unique to Kazakhstan; Central Asian countries, excluding Turkmenistan, have seen their external debt increase by 34.9% over the past five years, reaching nearly $290.8 billion in 2025, with Kazakhstan accounting for 62.5% of this total. Despite having the largest external debt stock in Central Asia, Kazakhstan's general government debt burden remains relatively moderate, with the International Monetary Fund data placing it at around 24.9% of GDP, compared to higher percentages in neighboring countries like Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. However, the size of the debt is just one aspect of fiscal vulnerability. Economists also consider the cost of servicing it, its currency and maturity structure, and the utilization of borrowed funds. A country with a high debt ratio can maintain financial stability if investors retain confidence and debt-service costs remain manageable.
In conclusion, Kazakhstan's external debt situation, while on the rise, is not without its complexities. The country's reliance on long-term debt and the significant portion of intercompany FDI debt suggest a need for careful management and strategic planning to mitigate potential risks. As Kazakhstan continues to navigate its economic landscape, it will be crucial to monitor these trends and ensure that the country's financial stability is not compromised by external debt obligations.
